Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgedeki olas\u0131 senaryolara ili\u015fkin ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 veren Emekli Tu\u011fgeneral Dr. Naim Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, \u201cABD\u2019nin, \u0130ran co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu suikast ve sonras\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak t\u00fcm senaryolar en az 40 y\u0131l s\u00fcrecek bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131 olabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u0130stanbul Ayd\u0131n \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi ve Emekli Tu\u011fgeneral Dr. Naim Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc Komutan\u0131 General Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin Ba\u011fdat Havaliman\u0131\u2019nda d\u00fczenlenen S\u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan olaylar\u0131n kriti\u011fini yapt\u0131. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fini savunan Dr. Bab\u00fcro\u011flu,\u201d ABD\u2019nin, \u0130ran i\u00e7inde belirlenen 52 hedefi vurmas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019da uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecek bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyebilir ve en az 40 y\u0131l s\u00fcrecek bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131 olabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u0130ran\u2019da uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecek bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyebilir\u201d<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n, “\u0130ran\u2019da vurmak i\u00e7in 52 hedef belirledik. Y\u0131llar \u00f6nce rehin al\u0131nan 52 ABD\u2019li vatanda\u015f\u0131 temsil ediyor. \u0130ran i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde kritik olan bu hedefler ani ve \u015fiddetle vurulacak” \u015feklindeki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan Dr. Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, \u201cBu hedefler, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ekonomik y\u00f6nden \u00e7\u00f6kertmek i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle ekonomik tesisler ve komuta kontrol sistemleri ile silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerin \u00f6nemli \u00fcsleri olacakt\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131n i\u015faret fi\u015fe\u011fi olabilir. ABD\u2019nin, \u0130ran i\u00e7inde belirlenen 52 hedefi vurmas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019da uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecek bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyebilir ve en az 40 y\u0131l s\u00fcrecek bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131 olabilir\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
\u201cHibrit sava\u015f ya da 5. Nesil Sava\u015f\u201d<\/p>\n
S\u00fcleymani olay\u0131yla Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7iminde bir avantaj elde etti\u011fini de ekleyen Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tepkisi ABD \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck etki meydana getirirse avantaj tersine d\u00f6nebilir. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu\u2019nun, \u0130ran\u2019a operasyonun ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Trump\u2019\u0131 s\u00fcrekli s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bir s\u0131r de\u011fil. B\u00f6lgede, ABD askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla art\u0131r\u0131rken, t\u00fcm \u00fcs ve tesisleri alarm durumunda. ABD\u2019yle birlikte hareket eden \u0130ngiltere, b\u00f6lgede askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na gemi g\u00f6nderiyor. \u0130srail u\u00e7aklar\u0131 L\u00fcbnan \u00fczerinde al\u00e7ak u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Asl\u0131nda, vekiller \u00fczerinden sava\u015f var ama ad\u0131 Hibrit sava\u015f ya da 5\u2019inci Nesil Sava\u015f\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
\u201cBu suikast di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerde birbirlerine mesafeli olan \u015eiileri birle\u015ftirdi\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201c\u0130ran, vekiller \u00fczerinden sava\u015f\u0131 \u015fiddetlendirecektir\u201d diyen Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, \u201cBa\u015fta Irak olmak \u00fczere Suriye, Yemen, L\u00fcbnan, Filistin\u2019de veya ba\u015fka b\u00f6lgelerde, kendisine ba\u011fl\u0131 ya da y\u00f6nlendirebilece\u011fi \u00f6rg\u00fctler eliyle eylemler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilir. \u0130ran k\u00f6kl\u00fc devlet olman\u0131n refleksiyle, \u2018kendini tutma stratejisi\u2019 uygulayacakt\u0131r. Acele kararla riski hesaplanmam\u0131\u015f ad\u0131m atmayacakt\u0131r. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin bu anlamda devrede olmalar\u0131 da bunun i\u015fareti. Beklenmeyen ve ABD \u00fczerinde etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck olacak bir eylemi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Zamanlama ve yer \u00f6nemli; \u0130ran en uygun zaman\u0131 ve yeri kollayacakt\u0131r. \u00d6ld\u00fcr\u00fclme olay\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyecek etkileri olacakt\u0131r. \u0130ran, n\u00fckleer alan\u0131ndaki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu olay, \u0130ran rejimine g\u00fc\u00e7 verdi. Ekonomik nedenlerle, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f etkenlerle ba\u015flayan protesto g\u00f6sterileri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130ran rejiminin elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ba\u015fta \u0130ran olmak \u00fczere, Irak ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerde birbirlerine mesafeli olan \u015eii gruplar\u0131 birle\u015ftirdi\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
\u201cIrak, ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcss\u00fc haline geldi\u201d<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130ran rejiminin daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ve bu olaydan en \u00e7ok etkilenen devletin Irak oldu\u011funu ifade eden Dr. Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, Suriye gibi Irak\u2019\u0131n da art\u0131k par\u00e7alanma s\u00fcrecine h\u0131zla giren ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z bir devlet oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek \u015fu ifadelerde bulundu: \u201cOlan Irak\u2019a oldu. Irak\u2019ta dokuz ABD \u00fcss\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 bin ABD askeri vard\u0131. Bu say\u0131 10 bin askere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede, 11 \u00fclkede 60 bin civar\u0131nda askeri var. Bu say\u0131 daha da artacak. Irak, art\u0131k ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcss\u00fc haline geldi. 2008\u2019de ABD-Irak aras\u0131nda imzalanan Kuvvetlerin Stat\u00fcs\u00fc Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019yla (SOFA), Irak g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin e\u011fitilmesi ve I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le sava\u015f kapsam\u0131nda ABD Irak\u2019a yerle\u015fmi\u015fti. Irak meclisi, ABD askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkeyi terk etmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde karar ald\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmete yetki verdi. Ancak bu karar\u0131n bir h\u00fckm\u00fc olmaz. Bu karardan sonra ABD askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r ve i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 tetikler. Erbil\u2019de, 2021\u2019de hizmete girecek 200 bin metrekarelik, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ABD konsolosluk binas\u0131 in\u015fa ediliyor. 2017\u2019de, Kuzey Irak\u2019ta yap\u0131lan \u201cba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu\u201d tekrar masada yerini alacak. Kuzey Suriye\u2019de PYD\/PKK ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015fgal etti\u011fi Suriye\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30\u2019u ile Kuzey Irak yap\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fmesi art\u0131k uzak bir ihtimal de\u011fil. Bu olay, Rusya-Suriye-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki i\u015fbirli\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131rken, T\u00fcrkiye-ABD i\u015fbirli\u011fini geli\u015ftirici, Rusya-T\u00fcrkiye i\u015fbirli\u011fini zay\u0131flat\u0131c\u0131 rol oynayacakt\u0131r. Yani, Nisan 2020\u2019de S-400\u2019\u00fcn aktif duruma getirilmesi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kom\u015fular\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye Suriye\u2019de ABD ve Rusya ile Irak\u2019ta ise ABD\u2019yle kom\u015fu oldu.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cUluslararas\u0131 hukuk y\u00f6n\u00fcnden olduk\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir eylem\u201d<\/p>\n
Sald\u0131r\u0131da Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ebu Mehdi el-M\u00fchendis\u2019in de ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi\u011fini ve bununda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, \u201cHa\u015fdi \u015eabi (Halk Savunma G\u00fc\u00e7leri), Irak\u2019taki en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki \u015eii lider olan Sistani\u2019nin \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 ve meclisin onay\u0131yla ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kurulmu\u015f bir \u00f6rg\u00fct. Yani Irak devletine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir yap\u0131. Beyrut\u2019ta Hizbullah lideri Nasrallah\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fen S\u00fcleymani \u015eam\u2019a ge\u00e7ti, ard\u0131ndan u\u00e7akla 3 Ocak 2020 g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u011fdat\u2019a geldi, onu kar\u015f\u0131layan M\u00fchendis\u2019le bindi\u011fi ara\u00e7 konvoyu ABD S\u0130HA\u2019lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan vuruldu. Nokta istihbarat\u0131na dayal\u0131, nokta hedefi. CIA-MOSSAD\u2019\u0131n, Irak ve yerel istihbarat kaynaklar\u0131ndan yararland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair emareler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. S\u00fcleymani, do\u011frudan \u0130ran ruhani lideri Hamaney\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki k\u0131l\u0131c\u0131. \u0130ran i\u00e7in “efsane”, “kahraman” bir komutan. \u0130ran Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli bir sembol. S\u00fcleymani sadece \u0130ran i\u00e7in de\u011fil, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD-\u0130srail cephesine kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede bir simge haline gelmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle, \u0130ran ABD\u2019nin bu eylemini kendi itibar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131da, BM taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilen Irak\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkentinde, Irak\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7imle i\u015fba\u015f\u0131na gelmi\u015f h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin onay\u0131 olmadan, Irak\u2019\u0131n bir devlet g\u00f6revlisi olan M\u00fchendis \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, BM taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin bir komutan\u0131 ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele gerek\u00e7esiyle yok ediliyor. Uluslararas\u0131 hukuk y\u00f6n\u00fcnden olduk\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir eylem\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
KASIM S\u00dcLEYMAN\u0130\u2019N\u0130N \u00d6LD\u00dcR\u00dcLMES\u0130N\u0130 YORUMLAYAN EMEKL\u0130 TU\u011eGENERAL DR. NA\u0130M BAB\u00dcRO\u011eLU, \u201cABD\u2019N\u0130N, \u0130RAN CO\u011eRAFYASINI HEDEF ALMASI, B\u00d6LGESEL B\u0130R SAVA\u015eI TET\u0130KLEYEB\u0130L\u0130R. BU SU\u0130KAST VE SONRASINDA YA\u015eANACAK T\u00dcM SENARYOLAR EN AZ 40 YIL S\u00dcRECEK B\u0130R \u0130\u00c7 SAVA\u015eIN KIVILCIMI OLAB\u0130L\u0130R\u201d DED\u0130.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":252232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[3078,12835,125,4167,58731,2659,548,12730,42757],"class_list":["post-252231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-abdnin","tag-almasi","tag-bir","tag-bolgesel","tag-cografyasini","tag-hedef","tag-iran","tag-savasi","tag-tetikleyebilir"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.tvturk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/abdnin-iran-cografyasini-hedef-almasi-bolgesel-bir-savasi-tetikleyebilir_4bdb65b.jpg?fit=1000%2C666","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paKIfm-13Cf","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=252231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/252232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=252231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=252231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tvturk.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=252231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}